Perspectives on the use of modelling and economic analysis to guide HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa
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HIV modelling and economic analyses have had a prominent role in guiding programmatic responses to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there has been little reflection on how the HIV modelling field might develop in future. HIV modelling should more routinely align with national government and ministry of health priorities, recognising their legitimate mandates and stewardship responsibilities, for HIV and other wider health programmes. Importance should also be placed on ensuring collaboration between modellers, and that joint approaches to addressing modelling questions, becomes the norm rather than the exception. Such an environment can accelerate translation of modelling analyses into policy formulation because areas where models agree can be prioritised for action, whereas areas over which uncertainty prevails can be slated for additional study, data collection, and analysis. HIV modelling should increasingly be integrated with the modelling of health needs beyond HIV, particularly in allocative efficiency analyses, where focusing on one disease over another might lead to worse health overall. Such integration might also enhance partnership with national governments whose mandates extend beyond HIV. Finally, we see a need for there to be substantial and equitable investment in capacity strengthening within African countries, so that African researchers will increasingly be leading modelling exercises. Building a critical mass of expertise, strengthened through external collaboration and knowledge exchange, should be the ultimate goal.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Tidsskrift | The Lancet HIV |
| Vol/bind | 9 |
| Udgave nummer | 7 |
| Sider (fra-til) | e517-e520 |
| ISSN | 2352-3018 |
| DOI | |
| Status | Udgivet - 2022 |
Bibliografisk note
Funding Information:
The Viewpoint was coordinated by PR and ANP, who are funded by the HIV Modelling Consortium, with financial support received by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The funder had no role in the ideas expressed or in the writing of the manuscript. The views expressed in this Viewpoint do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy, or views of WHO or UNAIDS.
Funding Information:
ANP reports funding (paid to institution) from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; grants from the UK Research and Innovation, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Wellcome Trust; and consulting fees from the Gates Foundation. CP reports a grant (OPP1191665) from the Gates Foundation paid to Avenir Health to support technical HIV development projects as well as country and global analysis. FMC reports grants from the Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, Unitaid, US Agency for International Development (USAID), UNICEF, UN Population Fund, Elton John AIDS Foundation, and the US National Institutes of Health (NIH). GO reports grants from The Global Fund and UNAIDS. GM-R reports grants (paid to institution) from the Gates Foundation and USAID South Africa; and is chair of the South African National COVID-19 Costing Working Group at the South African National Department of Health, and chair of the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV testiNg Services Technical working group at WHO. JWE reports grants (paid to institution) from the Gates Foundation, UNAIDS, NIH, and WHO; and consulting fees from WHO, Oxford Policy Management, and University of California San Francisco. MG reports funding from the World Bank and grants from UNAIDS; is a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Global Health Science and Practice; and is chair of the HIV Economic Reference Group Working Group on HIV Allocative Efficiency. MM reports funding from and is an employee of the Gates Foundation. RVB reports grants (paid to institution) from the Gates Foundation, NIH, and USAID; participates on the safety board of the HVTN Clinical Trial; and declares manuscript and abstract writing support from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. SLK reports grants and contract funding from various organisations received by the Burnet Institute. TBH reports funding (paid to institution) from the Gates Foundation through a sub-contract for University College London; grants (paid to institution) from the Medical Research Council, NIH, Wellcome, Global Challenges Research Fund, and UNAIDS, not related to this report; and consulting fees from WHO, The Global Fund, and Find, not related to this report. VC reports funding (paid to institution) from UK Research and Innovation; grants from Unitaid, National Institute for Health and Care Research, USAID, Medical Research Council, and the Gates Foundation; and consulting fees from WHO. All other authors declare no competing interests.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved.
ID: 317815732