TY - JOUR

T1 - Perspectives on the use of modelling and economic analysis to guide HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

AU - Revill, Paul

AU - Rangaraj, Ajay

AU - Makochekanwa, Albert

AU - Mpofu, Amon

AU - Ciaranello, Andrea L.

AU - Jahn, Andreas

AU - Gonani, Andrew

AU - Phillips, Andrew N.

AU - Bershteyn, Anna

AU - Zwizwai, Benson

AU - Nichols, Brooke E.

AU - Pretorius, Carel

AU - Kerr, Cliff C.

AU - Carlson, Cindy

AU - Ten Brink, Debra

AU - Mudimu, Edinah

AU - Kataika, Edward

AU - Lamontagne, Erik

AU - Terris-Prestholt, Fern

AU - Cowan, Frances M.

AU - Manthalu, Gerald

AU - Oberth, Gemma

AU - Mayer-Rath, Gesine

AU - Semini, Iris

AU - Taramusi, Isaac

AU - Eaton, Jeffrey W.

AU - Zhao, Jinjou

AU - Stover, John

AU - Izazola-Licea, Jose A.

AU - Kripke, Katherine

AU - Johnson, Leigh

AU - Bansi-Matharu, Loveleen

AU - Gorgons, Marelize

AU - Morrison, Michelle

AU - Chagoma, Newton

AU - Mugurungi, Owen

AU - Stuart, Robyn M.

AU - Martin-Hughes, Rowan

AU - Nyirenda, Rose

AU - Barnabas, Ruanne V.

AU - Mohan, Sakshi

AU - Kelly, Sherrie L.

AU - Sibandze, Sibusiso

AU - Walker, Simon

AU - Banda, Stephen

AU - Braithwaite, R. Scott

AU - Chidarikire, Thato

AU - Hallett, Timothy B.

AU - Kalua, Thoko

AU - Apollo, Tsitsi

AU - The Modelling to Inform HIV Programmes in sub-Saharan Africa (MIHPSA) Working Group

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved.

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - HIV modelling and economic analyses have had a prominent role in guiding programmatic responses to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there has been little reflection on how the HIV modelling field might develop in future. HIV modelling should more routinely align with national government and ministry of health priorities, recognising their legitimate mandates and stewardship responsibilities, for HIV and other wider health programmes. Importance should also be placed on ensuring collaboration between modellers, and that joint approaches to addressing modelling questions, becomes the norm rather than the exception. Such an environment can accelerate translation of modelling analyses into policy formulation because areas where models agree can be prioritised for action, whereas areas over which uncertainty prevails can be slated for additional study, data collection, and analysis. HIV modelling should increasingly be integrated with the modelling of health needs beyond HIV, particularly in allocative efficiency analyses, where focusing on one disease over another might lead to worse health overall. Such integration might also enhance partnership with national governments whose mandates extend beyond HIV. Finally, we see a need for there to be substantial and equitable investment in capacity strengthening within African countries, so that African researchers will increasingly be leading modelling exercises. Building a critical mass of expertise, strengthened through external collaboration and knowledge exchange, should be the ultimate goal.

AB - HIV modelling and economic analyses have had a prominent role in guiding programmatic responses to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there has been little reflection on how the HIV modelling field might develop in future. HIV modelling should more routinely align with national government and ministry of health priorities, recognising their legitimate mandates and stewardship responsibilities, for HIV and other wider health programmes. Importance should also be placed on ensuring collaboration between modellers, and that joint approaches to addressing modelling questions, becomes the norm rather than the exception. Such an environment can accelerate translation of modelling analyses into policy formulation because areas where models agree can be prioritised for action, whereas areas over which uncertainty prevails can be slated for additional study, data collection, and analysis. HIV modelling should increasingly be integrated with the modelling of health needs beyond HIV, particularly in allocative efficiency analyses, where focusing on one disease over another might lead to worse health overall. Such integration might also enhance partnership with national governments whose mandates extend beyond HIV. Finally, we see a need for there to be substantial and equitable investment in capacity strengthening within African countries, so that African researchers will increasingly be leading modelling exercises. Building a critical mass of expertise, strengthened through external collaboration and knowledge exchange, should be the ultimate goal.

U2 - 10.1016/S2352-3018(22)00035-2

DO - 10.1016/S2352-3018(22)00035-2

M3 - Letter

C2 - 35468318

AN - SCOPUS:85134084227

VL - 9

SP - e517-e520

JO - The Lancet HIV

JF - The Lancet HIV

SN - 2352-3018

IS - 7

ER -