Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions
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Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions. / Panovska-Griffiths, J.; Swallow, B.; Hinch, R.; Cohen, J.; Rosenfeld, K.; Stuart, R. M.; Ferretti, L.; Di Lauro, F.; Wymant, C.; Izzo, A.; Waites, W.; Viner, R.; Bonell, C.; Fraser, C.; Klein, D.; Kerr, C. C.
In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 380, No. 2233, 20210315, 2022.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions
AU - Panovska-Griffiths, J.
AU - Swallow, B.
AU - Hinch, R.
AU - Cohen, J.
AU - Rosenfeld, K.
AU - Stuart, R. M.
AU - Ferretti, L.
AU - Di Lauro, F.
AU - Wymant, C.
AU - Izzo, A.
AU - Waites, W.
AU - Viner, R.
AU - Bonell, C.
AU - Fraser, C.
AU - Klein, D.
AU - Kerr, C. C.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
AB - The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
KW - agent-based modelling
KW - COVID-19
KW - multivariate regression modelling
U2 - 10.1098/rsta.2021.0315
DO - 10.1098/rsta.2021.0315
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 35965458
AN - SCOPUS:85134371098
VL - 380
JO - Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
JF - Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
SN - 1364-503X
IS - 2233
M1 - 20210315
ER -
ID: 343301625