Causal discovery in heavy-tailed models

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Dokumenter

  • Nicola Gnecco
  • Nicolai Meinshausen
  • Jonas Peters
  • Sebastian Engelke

Causal questions are omnipresent in many scientific problems. While much progress has been made in the analysis of causal relationships between random variables, these methods are not well suited if the causal mechanisms only manifest themselves in extremes. This work aims to connect the two fields of causal inference and extreme value theory. We define the causal tail coefficient that captures asymmetries in the extremal dependence of two random variables. In the population case, the causal tail coefficient is shown to reveal the causal structure if the distribution follows a linear structural causal model. This holds even in the presence of latent common causes that have the same tail index as the observed variables. Based on a consistent estimator of the causal tail coefficient, we propose a computationally highly efficient algorithm that estimates the causal structure. We prove that our method consistently recovers the causal order and we compare it to other well-established and nonextremal approaches in causal discovery on synthetic and real data. The code is available as an open-access R package.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftAnnals of Statistics
Vol/bind49
Udgave nummer3
Sider (fra-til)1755-1778
ISSN0090-5364
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2021

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
Funding. JP was supported by research grants from VILLUM FONDEN and the Carls-berg Foundation, and SE was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation.

Publisher Copyright:
© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2021

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