Dynamic term structure models for SOFR futures

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

The London InterBank Offered Rate is scheduled for discontinuation, and the replacement advocated by US regulators is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). The only SOFR-linked derivative with significant liquidity and trading history is the SOFR futures contract, traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We use the historical record of futures prices to construct dynamic arbitrage-free models for the SOFR term structure. We find that a Gaussian arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model describes term structure well without accounting for jumps and seasonal effects observed in SOFR. However, a shadow-rate extension is needed to describe volatility near the zero-boundary impacting the futures convexity adjustment and option pricing.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Futures Markets
Volume41
Issue number10
Pages (from-to)1520-1544
Number of pages25
ISSN0270-7314
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC

    Research areas

  • arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel, futures, LIBOR, SOFR, term structure models

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