The book gives
a detailed mathematical and statistical analysis of the
cointegrated vector autoregressive model. This model has gained
popularity because it can at the same time capture the short-run
dynamic properties as well as the long-run equilibrium behaviour of
many non-stationary time series. It also allows relevant economic
questions to be formulated in a consistent statistical framework.
Part I og the book is planned so that it can be used by those who want to apply the methods without going into too much detail about the probability theory. The main emphasis is on the derivation of estimators and test statistics through a consistent use of the Gaussian likelihood function. It is shown that many different models can be formulated within the framework of the autoregressive model and the interpretation of these models is discussed in detail. In particular, models involving restrictions on the cointegration vectors and the adjustment coefficients are discussed, as well as the role of the constant and linear drift.
In Part II, the asymtotic theory is given the slightly more general framework og stationary liinear processes with i.i.d. innovations. Some useful mathematical tools are collected in Appendix A, and a brief summary of weak convergence is given i in Appendix B.
The book is intended to give a relatively self-contained presentation for graduate students and researchers with a good knowledge of multivariate regression analysis and likelihood methods. The asymtotic theory requires some familiarity with the theory of weak convergence of stochastic processes. The theory is treated in detail with the purpose of giving the reader a working knowledge of the techniques involved.
Many exercises are provided. The theoretical analysis is illustrated with the empirical analysis of two sets of economic data. The theory has been developed in close contact with the application and the methods have been implemented in the computer package CATS in RATS as a result of a collaboration with Katarina Juselius and Henrik Hansen.
You can also go to a page, containing the known misprints in the book.